{"id":507228,"date":"2025-08-27T02:07:25","date_gmt":"2025-08-27T00:07:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/osr.org\/?p=507228"},"modified":"2025-08-19T02:31:18","modified_gmt":"2025-08-19T00:31:18","slug":"will-2024-yr4-hit-the-moon-and-what-happens-if-it-does","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/osr.org\/en-uk\/blog\/osrguide\/will-2024-yr4-hit-the-moon-and-what-happens-if-it-does\/","title":{"rendered":"Will 2024 YR4 Hit the Moon – and What Happens if it Does?"},"content":{"rendered":"

In July 2025, astronomers around the world were watching an object known as 2024 YR4, a near-Earth asteroid that briefly made headlines when new calculations suggested it could potentially collide with the Moon<\/a> in 2032. Although the odds of such an impact remain very small, the possibility has sparked curiosity and raised questions about what would happen if it did. Would the Moon be significantly altered? Could Earth feel any effects? And why does tracking such objects matter? Let\u2019s take a closer look!<\/span><\/p>\n

What Is 2024 YR4?<\/span><\/h2>\n

\"An<\/p>\n

2024 YR4<\/a> is an asteroid<\/a> discovered in late 2024 and classified as a near-Earth object (NEO). These objects orbit the Sun but come close to Earth\u2019s orbit, sometimes posing a potential hazard. Astronomers estimate that 2024 YR4 is roughly 250\u2013300 metres across – smaller than the asteroid thought to have wiped out the dinosaurs, but certainly large enough to cause significant effects if it struck a planetary surface.<\/span><\/p>\n

Most NEOs like 2024 YR4 are tracked carefully using powerful telescopes and radar observations. These allow astronomers to calculate their orbits and predict whether they will pose any future danger. In this case, updated observations in 2025 slightly increased the chance that 2024 YR4 could intersect with the Moon\u2019s orbit in about seven years\u2019 time.<\/span><\/p>\n

How Likely Is an Impact?<\/span><\/h2>\n

At present, NASA and other space agencies estimate there is a roughly 4% chance of 2024 YR4 colliding with the Moon in 2032. That might sound like a pretty small chance, but it\u2019s significant enough for plenty of astronomers to keep paying close attention! In most cases, further observations reduce the level of risk as the orbit becomes better understood. But for now, a lunar impact remains a possibility.<\/span><\/p>\n

The chances of 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth are far lower. Current models suggest the asteroid\u2019s path will not cross our planet directly, so there\u2019s no immediate danger to humanity. Still, because the Moon orbits close to us, any interaction with it naturally raises interest and concern.<\/span><\/p>\n

What Would Happen If 2024 YR4 Hit the Moon?<\/span><\/h2>\n
\"Moon

BasitSangah<\/a>, CC BY-SA 3.0<\/a>, via Wikimedia Commons<\/p><\/figure> BasitSangah<\/a>, CC BY-SA 3.0<\/a>, via Wikimedia Commons<\/p><\/div>\n

If the asteroid were to collide with the Moon, the results would be dramatic on a local scale. Scientists predict that:<\/span><\/p>\n